Presidential Forecast

As of September 22nd, Donald Trump and JD Vance are projected to win:

Notably, Trump is projected to win the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia*, North Carolina*, and Wisconsin. However, Harris is projected to win Michigan, Nevada*, and Pennsylvania*. See below for all projected state outcomes. Read further for a brief commentary on the state of the race.

*Indicates projected result has changed since last update

Election Commentary and Miscellaneous Thoughts

Both Trump and Harris’ unfavorables have continued to go down. From last week, Harris has lost some ground in my national polling average and had varying momentum shifts across the battlegrounds. The race remains extremely close.

I think Democrats are losing working class voters and not doing nearly enough to try to earn their vote. I think Trump hasn’t been making as many big blunders lately. I think Harris’ social media is starting to get desperate and her appearances stale. I think Trump is so beatable as a candidate, but has so many institutional advantages that he’s availing himself of. I think Democrats are running a tactically smart and disciplined campaign, but they need to run a more focused campaign to win.