Presidential Forecast

As of September 29th, Donald Trump and JD Vance are projected to win:

Trump is projected to win the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Harris is projected to win Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. See below for all projected state outcomes.

Since last week’s update, no state projections have changed the overall winner. However, projected vote shares have shifted significantly in various states, indicative of growing strengths and weaknesses for both candidates. Read further for a brief commentary on the new projections and thoughts on the state of the race.

Forecast Commentary

Most state projections have shifted slightly in Trump’s favor (primarily reflective of his marginally improved national polling). The major exception is North Carolina. Last week, Trump was projected to win relatively comfortably (+2.4pp) and now Harris is within striking distance (0.2pp). Harris has also gained important ground in Georgia and Wisconsin while improving her lead in Nevada. Trump has furthered his lead in Arizona and inched closer to winning in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The race is extremely close.

Election Thoughts

Democrats, myself included, are increasingly frustrated that the race is this close. By all conventional metrics, Harris is running a stronger, more professional, and more sophisticated campaign. Democrat’s fundraising is incredible, Harris won the debate, and the campaign has made no obvious errors for several months running. By contrast, Trump’s campaign events look amateurish with an impressive inability to stay on message, his interviews could charitably be described as absurd, and Vance has deservingly suffered through negative news cycle after negative news cycle.

Now, there are many many reasons why this election is an uphill battle for Democrats, so I don’t bring this up to say Harris should be winning. My only point is: if Harris isn’t already winning with these conditions, it’s hard for me to imagine how the tide can turn in Democrats’ favor.

I think one thing in particular should really scare Democrats that no one is talking about: Trump is becoming less unpopular. In the latest national NYT/Siena (my personal favorite pollster) poll, Trump’s unfavorables were at 51%, down 5 points from the end of last year and the lowest they have ever recorded. Albeit, these gains are nothing in comparison to the complete favorability reversal Harris has experienced in the last few months, but I think Trump’s improved public perception is getting harder and harder to ignore.

Biden’s theory of the race was to let Trump hog the spotlight so people would remember just how much of a psycho he was. This theory continues to fall apart even after Biden’s candidacy ended. Fortunately, Harris has applied a different approach from the start. However, I think many Democrats have still not internalized that Trump is inexplicably becoming palatable again to more Americans.

Transitions are overrated. One final thought: I think Harris’ trip to Arizona this week was a mistake. As I’ve described before, I generally apply a pretty simplistic lens to politics. I think when a candidate talks about an issue, they do less to advance their perspective and instead do far more to raise the salience of that issue. In other words, only talk about issues that are good for you and pivot from issues that are bad for you.

Immigration is Trump’s strongest issue. From the moment Harris took over the campaign, my biggest worry has been that immigration would become a major issue in the election, especially given Harris’ perceived vulnerabilities. I have been pleasantly surprised at how effectively Harris has evaded the topic and how ineffective Trump has been at highlighting the issue (again, an impressive inability to stay on message). This is all to say that I think going to the border in Arizona to outflank Trump on immigration is high-risk, with no reward. Despite Harris’ strong message on immigration (primarily if focused on Trump’s role in the failed border deal), I think any moment the focus is on immigration is a win for Trump and a moment the focus is not on abortion, healthcare, or one of the other many issues where Democrats win.