Presidential Forecast

As of October 6th, Donald Trump and JD Vance are projected to win:

Trump is projected to win the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan*, Nevada*, and Wisconsin. Harris is projected to win North Carolina* and Pennsylvania. See below for all projected state outcomes.

*Indicates projected result has changed since last update

Forecast Commentary

The projection updates were minimal and mostly reflecting a reversion from the out-sized shifts we saw two weeks ago. Harris has regained ground nationally but had varying momentum shifts across the battleground states. Specifically, Harris has lost the most ground in Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

One thing I’m keeping an eye on as we get closer to Election Day are the weather forecasts. Currently, six of the seven battleground states are forecasted to have unfavorable weather outcomes for Harris. Only North Carolina has good weather for Harris.

Election Thoughts

The race is the exact same as last week. The Vice Presidential debate did nothing. The numbers are barely moving around.

I think there’s a very real possibility Trump wins. I wish everyone would watch one of his rallies — they are absurd.